2020 Dem Nomination Outlook update

This race is Bernie vs Kamala.

• Bernie: he's the thought leader. Every other candidate has been parroting Bernie, or have been too afraid to challenge his proposals
• Kamala: She's reasonably smart, a little awkward, but she's black and a woman. If she wasn't she'd be polling like Kloubachar.
• Pete: Peak Pete is happening now. He's an elitist who is gay. The writers at the NY Times love him, but the voters won't care.
• Biden: He's done before he starts. He's too afraid to be a centrist, so he's going to parrot Bernie. So why get the dime-store Bernie, when you can have the real deal. Look for a bump when he announces and then a steady decline every day after that.
• Yang: He's a one trick pony with his UBL proposal. That garner's tons of enthusiasm with a few people but not enough on a broad basis.
• Warren: Fed gov't paying student loan debt was her hail mary. She's done.
• Beto: The media found Pete. He's like Beto, but is smarter, doesn't wave his arms, and is gay.
• Booker: He was done at Spartacus.

US Population vs Prison Population

So? In Brazil, criminals go unpunished. In Saudi Arabia, criminals are quickly executed or are subjected to corporal punishment so they don’t actually spend time in prison. In Britian, murderers often only get 5 years in prison. In Japan, there is just a lot less criminals. There is much less crime in Vermont than Chicago, but that doesn’t mean that the higher prison population in Chicago is unjust.

Some of our sentencing policies for drugs usage are overly harsh, and I applaud Trump’s efforts for reform, but you can’t look at broad statistics and declare an injustice.

One of the statistics circulating is that the US has 5% of the world’s population, but 25% of the world’s prison population, implying that there is an inherent injustice. 

My answer:   So? In Brazil, criminals go unpunished. In Saudi Arabia, criminals are quickly executed or are subjected to corporal punishment so they don’t actually spend time in prison. In Britian, murderers often only get 5 years in prison. In Japan, there is just a lot less criminals. There is much less crime in Vermont than Chicago, but that doesn’t mean that the higher prison population in Chicago is unjust.

Some of our sentencing policies for drugs usage are overly harsh, and I applaud Trump’s efforts for reform, but you can’t look at broad statistics and declare an injustice.

2020 Democratic Nomination predictions

Here's my handicap of the 2020 Democratic Nomination. I find it interesting because it’s the first Democrat primary since 1992, where there are more than 2 candidate who attract a significant interest (which I would consider higher than 5 cents). Republicans have had wide open fields in every election since 2008.

• Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke is nominally the front runner. On the plus side, while he lost,  he had a strong showing in a loss for a Senate race. His father-in-law is worth some $20 billion giving him a campaign finance boost, not to mention that he was easily able to raise money on his own in the 2016 cycle. Women find him attractive and has managed to create a persona of being hip. However, he still lost, is still only a Congressman, and is a straight white male. How sexist of him to stand in the way of several women candidate?  Aside from Trump, when was the last time someone other than a Governor, Senator, or VP won a nomination? Is Trump the start of a new trend or a one-off blip. The left has so-far ignored the fact that he is a white guy masquerading as a Hispanic. “Beto” is a Spanish nickname for Roberto, which was helpful in his TX race in order to endear himself to Hispanics in his race against an actual Hispanic , the hated Ted Cruz. Now that he’s running against other Dems, will there be cries of cultural appropriation or “race faker” (ala Rachel Dolezan)?
• Kamala Harris: My money is on her, literally. She’s authentically left-wing which is key to getting the nomination. She ranks highest on the intersectionality scale, so she can bludgeon opponents as either being anti-woman or racist. Being a left-wing minority female is key but if it was the only thing, Maxine Waters would be the nomination. Most importantly, she has a good resume and she’s smart. She was the most impressive Dem Senator during the Kavanaugh hearings.
• Joe Biden couldn’t win in 1988 or 2008.  2016 was his chance and he didn’t do it. I don’t even think he runs. He’s a 76,  white, and male. There’s also a lot of video of him being creepy to women, which won’t hold up well under a campaign.
• Bernie Sanders’s high water mark was in 2016. He was an outlet for opposition to Hillary, but there are several candidates which hold similar left-wing views who are younger.
• Cory Booker has come across as too stupid. As mayor of Newark, NJ, he showed some promise as a centrist and someone who can achieve results, but he has since decided that he needed to tack far left to capture the nomination. His “I am Spartacus” moment was cringeworthy and he looked lackluster in the Kavanaugh hearings.
• Elizabeth Warren, once a darling of the left, already seems desperate. Two cringe-worthy  episodes right out of the gate: her I’m 1/1024^th Native American was a desperate attempt to be more than “just a white woman”. Her “Hold on, let me get a beer” was a desperate attempt to be “hip” and reminded me of Doctor Evil trying to do the Macarena.  Bernie’s more socialist, Beto is more hip, and Kamala is higher on the intersectionality scale. That leaves Warren out in the wind.
• Kristen Gillibrand & Amy Klobuchar – who? Ok, I know who they are but they have poor name recognition, and solely being a white woman doesn’t really excite the left these days. Maybe one of them will get desperate and convert to Islam. Otherwise, they are like the Tim Pawlenty of 2012 Republican Primary. Klobuchar will finish 3^rd in Iowa primary and Gillibrand will finish 3^rd in NH primary, and that will be their high-water mark. They’ll drop out, at the latest, immediately following super-Tuesday.
• John Hickenlooper – Not on the list and could have won the nomination with a Democratic party circa 1996. Now he’s too center, too white, and too male.

Recent Non firearm mass killings

Every time there is a shooting, there is a chorus to ban guns, but non-firearm mass killings are on the rise. The automobile has become an effective weapon of choice, but there are no calls to limit or ban them.  Here's a partial list of recent attacks to keep in mind for future discussion:

July 14, 2016: Nice. Ttruck. 86 killed, 434 injured
March 22, 2017: Westminster . Car. 5 killed, 49 injured
May 22, 2017: Manchester: Bomb. 22 killed. 800 injured

June 3, 2017: London bridge. Truck. 8 killed, 48 injured (21 critically) 

August 17, 2017: Barcelona. 13 killed, 130 injured
October 13, 2017: New York City. Rented Pickup. 8 killed, 11 injured

April 23, 2018: Toronto. Van. 10 killed, 16 injured

There is finally a wikipedia page listing out the vehicle ramming attacks, but who knows before that is deleted. 

UK Death Panel in Action

London - Charlie Gard, an infant with an inherited disease died after being died treatment in the UK. The parents had raised money, and had US hospitals offering to help. However, "three British courts ruled that further treatment of Charlie’s disease would cause the infant “significant harm.” Is that not just some amazing Orwellian newspeak?
 
 In 2008, liberals mocked Sarah Palin for talking about death panels with regard to Obamacare. Is this not a death panel?

Opposing the Revolution

The American Revolution was not always a forgone conclusion. Leading up to Independence there was many dissenting voices. On this day in 1776, John Dickinson, a Pennsylvania representative to the Continental Congress, rose up in opposition to Independence.


With all sincerity , Dickinson believed that the colonies were unprepared militarily, economically, and politically for war with England. The frontiers would be abandoned and Indians would set loose to create havoc. Instead of supporting the colonies, France and Spain would capitalize on the internal struggle to invade and recapture territory lost in the Seven Years War.


His concerns were entirely reasonable, and shows how risky the Revolution was.

Guide to Houston Gun Shops (Inside the Beltway)

My work-in-progress opinion of Houston gun shops.




Collectors Firearms - This is the premiere gun shop in Houston, and one of the top in the country. For vintage guns, it is likely the top shop. The selection at this place is amazing.  It has all types of firearms, from revolutionary war muskets to modern black rifles. See for yourself as the website is phonemnal and frequently updated. The prices are generally higher than most, but it helps availability. When I was looking for an Ithaca model 37, they were the only shop in town that had one.  I could bid on one online, and they were less, but when you factor in shipping and FFA charges, it would be about $30 cheaper. Is $30 worthwhile to be able to personally inspect the gun, rather than relying on pictures?  On the week June 5 - 10, 2017, they had a store wide 15% off sale, which was great. For common modern arms they are reasonably competitive with other shops. The staff is nice but their knowledge varies. 









Lone Star Defense & Arms - This place is the best shop for new owners and the best place for FFL transfers. The owners of this shop are very friendly and nice. They don't keep stock of new guns, but you can order online and have it arrive within 2-3 days. The online prices are extremely competitive, if you are not in a rush and good benchmark for prices. They do have a nice selection of used guns sold on Consignment. This list used to be frequently updated, but it has been slower as of recent. Prices are competitive, so you have to check frequently as some won't sit for long. The price will be 10%-20% less than you might find at Collectors. FFL transfers are only $15, and free for guns bought in their online store. I've also used them to ship guns out for repair, for which they only charged me one FFL fee. Since they are a gun shop, they have better and more convenient access to shipping, so it was much cheaper to use them than to go to FedEx on my own.









Full Armor Firearms - Okay, these guys are just outside the beltway, but too big to ignore. They have both a shop and range.









Carter's Country (Katy Freeway) - They have a good selection of both new and used guns. They also have the best selection of safes, holsters, optics, reloading supplies, hunting gear, shooting accessories, and ammo. They have a small selection of black guns but their specialty is more of pistols, hunting rifles and shotguns.  For used guns, they have a weekly listing but supply may change inter-week without being updated.






Republic Arms - Nice guys, but they usually have less than 5 guns in their store.  You can order through their online shop (which looks like every other online shop). I think their specialty is appraisals and estate sales.







Sunbelt Jewelry & Pawn (2 locations) - Going to a pawn shop for a gun may seem sketchy, but they have a decent stock of used guns. Their sticker prices aren't that attractively priced, but you can bargain. Unlike a Cash America or some national pawnshop chain, the manager will have a better ability to negotiate.






Black Gold Guns & Ammo - Small shop located near Karbach brewery, and not far from Academy.






Top Gun - Primary an indoor firing range, they have a solid selection new pistols as well as some used ones. You can rent a wide variety of guns to try out, in case you are unsure about how a caliber or model feels.





Cash America Pawn (1816 N Durham Dr) - I'm not sure about other Cash America pawn shops, but this one has a few guns. I might have left it completely off the list, but they had a French MAS-49 on of the few times that I have gone it.








Freer Gun Shop - This is more of a gun repair facility than a shop. They will have a few vintage long guns for sale. Great repair shop, though, especially for vintage guns.













The Liberty Armory -  This place seems to be a great shop for people interested in black guns, e.g., AR-15s, semi automatic pistols, etc. Their website doesn't show what is in stock. They do have a range and training classes which teach more than just the CHL. These look intriguing, but I've never attended.




Academy Sports & Outdoor - No used guns, but they have a wide variety of new guns, plus they have a wide array of ammo, shooting supplies, and hunting gear.

Against abortion, but Pro-Choice???

We've all heard the "I'm personally against abortion, but am pro-choice" argument before, well summarized in this oped. She acknowledges that the baby is a unique life, which makes her argument easy to deconstruct.

Scary Mommy: I personally believe that life begins at conception. I believe that an embryo and a fetus are unique human beings. I believe that choosing to terminate a life because of inconvenient timing is wrong. Those beliefs are all rooted in my religious faith, and are why the idea of abortion generally doesn’t sit well with me.
But I can’t laud the separation of church and state and also want my religious beliefs to be the basis for public policy. That’s hypocrisy.....Outright bans on abortion have not been proven to reduce abortion rates....And if you really want to lower abortion rates, put your weight behind legislation that is most likely to reduce unwanted pregnancy. Start advocating for affordable, accessible birth control, comprehensive sex education, and good health care for everyone. If the goal is to reduce abortion rates — which I assume is the goal of anyone who calls themselves pro-life — that’s the only proven way to do so.

To that I say, “I personally am against children working in coal mines, but don’t think my religious beliefs should be the basis for public policy.”

Sounds pretty silly, right? We all base our views of policy on our own moral beliefs, especially when one party has no voice. Unlike a topic like gay marriage, where it is fair to say “well, I’m against gay marriage personally, but my religious beliefs shouldn’t dictate public policy” – because in that case there are two consenting adults and their marriage does not affect anyone else. The author acknowledges that the embryo is a unique human being, but that unique human being does not have a voice in the abortion decision. That is why it is fair that society steps in. No one, except the suicidal, says “I wish I was aborted.” If anyone would say that, society would get them suicide prevention counseling. So if someone believe that the embryo is a unique human being, you also have to believe that in abortion the unique human being is consenting to suicide.

Laws against abortion would not eliminate murder, just as laws against murder don’t prevent murder. Adoption is the variable that is completely missing from this article. There are many good couples that cannot have children of their own, who are ready and willing to adopt. However, unlike the 1960s, adoption today is extremely expensive and difficult, since many unwanted babies are aborted. Many attempt to go through the process, and reluctantly give up after spending tens of thousands of dollars on failed attempts. If adoption was as easy as it was in the 1960s, you would also see couples with natural children adopt additional children.