2020 Dem Nomination Outlook update

This race is Bernie vs Kamala.

• Bernie: he's the thought leader. Every other candidate has been parroting Bernie, or have been too afraid to challenge his proposals
• Kamala: She's reasonably smart, a little awkward, but she's black and a woman. If she wasn't she'd be polling like Kloubachar.
• Pete: Peak Pete is happening now. He's an elitist who is gay. The writers at the NY Times love him, but the voters won't care.
• Biden: He's done before he starts. He's too afraid to be a centrist, so he's going to parrot Bernie. So why get the dime-store Bernie, when you can have the real deal. Look for a bump when he announces and then a steady decline every day after that.
• Yang: He's a one trick pony with his UBL proposal. That garner's tons of enthusiasm with a few people but not enough on a broad basis.
• Warren: Fed gov't paying student loan debt was her hail mary. She's done.
• Beto: The media found Pete. He's like Beto, but is smarter, doesn't wave his arms, and is gay.
• Booker: He was done at Spartacus.

US Population vs Prison Population

So? In Brazil, criminals go unpunished. In Saudi Arabia, criminals are quickly executed or are subjected to corporal punishment so they don’t actually spend time in prison. In Britian, murderers often only get 5 years in prison. In Japan, there is just a lot less criminals. There is much less crime in Vermont than Chicago, but that doesn’t mean that the higher prison population in Chicago is unjust.

Some of our sentencing policies for drugs usage are overly harsh, and I applaud Trump’s efforts for reform, but you can’t look at broad statistics and declare an injustice.

One of the statistics circulating is that the US has 5% of the world’s population, but 25% of the world’s prison population, implying that there is an inherent injustice. 

My answer:   So? In Brazil, criminals go unpunished. In Saudi Arabia, criminals are quickly executed or are subjected to corporal punishment so they don’t actually spend time in prison. In Britian, murderers often only get 5 years in prison. In Japan, there is just a lot less criminals. There is much less crime in Vermont than Chicago, but that doesn’t mean that the higher prison population in Chicago is unjust.

Some of our sentencing policies for drugs usage are overly harsh, and I applaud Trump’s efforts for reform, but you can’t look at broad statistics and declare an injustice.

2020 Democratic Nomination predictions

Here's my handicap of the 2020 Democratic Nomination. I find it interesting because it’s the first Democrat primary since 1992, where there are more than 2 candidate who attract a significant interest (which I would consider higher than 5 cents). Republicans have had wide open fields in every election since 2008.

• Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke is nominally the front runner. On the plus side, while he lost,  he had a strong showing in a loss for a Senate race. His father-in-law is worth some $20 billion giving him a campaign finance boost, not to mention that he was easily able to raise money on his own in the 2016 cycle. Women find him attractive and has managed to create a persona of being hip. However, he still lost, is still only a Congressman, and is a straight white male. How sexist of him to stand in the way of several women candidate?  Aside from Trump, when was the last time someone other than a Governor, Senator, or VP won a nomination? Is Trump the start of a new trend or a one-off blip. The left has so-far ignored the fact that he is a white guy masquerading as a Hispanic. “Beto” is a Spanish nickname for Roberto, which was helpful in his TX race in order to endear himself to Hispanics in his race against an actual Hispanic , the hated Ted Cruz. Now that he’s running against other Dems, will there be cries of cultural appropriation or “race faker” (ala Rachel Dolezan)?
• Kamala Harris: My money is on her, literally. She’s authentically left-wing which is key to getting the nomination. She ranks highest on the intersectionality scale, so she can bludgeon opponents as either being anti-woman or racist. Being a left-wing minority female is key but if it was the only thing, Maxine Waters would be the nomination. Most importantly, she has a good resume and she’s smart. She was the most impressive Dem Senator during the Kavanaugh hearings.
• Joe Biden couldn’t win in 1988 or 2008.  2016 was his chance and he didn’t do it. I don’t even think he runs. He’s a 76,  white, and male. There’s also a lot of video of him being creepy to women, which won’t hold up well under a campaign.
• Bernie Sanders’s high water mark was in 2016. He was an outlet for opposition to Hillary, but there are several candidates which hold similar left-wing views who are younger.
• Cory Booker has come across as too stupid. As mayor of Newark, NJ, he showed some promise as a centrist and someone who can achieve results, but he has since decided that he needed to tack far left to capture the nomination. His “I am Spartacus” moment was cringeworthy and he looked lackluster in the Kavanaugh hearings.
• Elizabeth Warren, once a darling of the left, already seems desperate. Two cringe-worthy  episodes right out of the gate: her I’m 1/1024^th Native American was a desperate attempt to be more than “just a white woman”. Her “Hold on, let me get a beer” was a desperate attempt to be “hip” and reminded me of Doctor Evil trying to do the Macarena.  Bernie’s more socialist, Beto is more hip, and Kamala is higher on the intersectionality scale. That leaves Warren out in the wind.
• Kristen Gillibrand & Amy Klobuchar – who? Ok, I know who they are but they have poor name recognition, and solely being a white woman doesn’t really excite the left these days. Maybe one of them will get desperate and convert to Islam. Otherwise, they are like the Tim Pawlenty of 2012 Republican Primary. Klobuchar will finish 3^rd in Iowa primary and Gillibrand will finish 3^rd in NH primary, and that will be their high-water mark. They’ll drop out, at the latest, immediately following super-Tuesday.
• John Hickenlooper – Not on the list and could have won the nomination with a Democratic party circa 1996. Now he’s too center, too white, and too male.

Recent Non firearm mass killings

Every time there is a shooting, there is a chorus to ban guns, but non-firearm mass killings are on the rise. The automobile has become an effective weapon of choice, but there are no calls to limit or ban them.  Here's a partial list of recent attacks to keep in mind for future discussion:

July 14, 2016: Nice. Ttruck. 86 killed, 434 injured
March 22, 2017: Westminster . Car. 5 killed, 49 injured
May 22, 2017: Manchester: Bomb. 22 killed. 800 injured

June 3, 2017: London bridge. Truck. 8 killed, 48 injured (21 critically) 

August 17, 2017: Barcelona. 13 killed, 130 injured
October 13, 2017: New York City. Rented Pickup. 8 killed, 11 injured

April 23, 2018: Toronto. Van. 10 killed, 16 injured

There is finally a wikipedia page listing out the vehicle ramming attacks, but who knows before that is deleted. 

UK Death Panel in Action

London - Charlie Gard, an infant with an inherited disease died after being died treatment in the UK. The parents had raised money, and had US hospitals offering to help. However, "three British courts ruled that further treatment of Charlie’s disease would cause the infant “significant harm.” Is that not just some amazing Orwellian newspeak?
 
 In 2008, liberals mocked Sarah Palin for talking about death panels with regard to Obamacare. Is this not a death panel?

Opposing the Revolution

The American Revolution was not always a forgone conclusion. Leading up to Independence there was many dissenting voices. On this day in 1776, John Dickinson, a Pennsylvania representative to the Continental Congress, rose up in opposition to Independence.


With all sincerity , Dickinson believed that the colonies were unprepared militarily, economically, and politically for war with England. The frontiers would be abandoned and Indians would set loose to create havoc. Instead of supporting the colonies, France and Spain would capitalize on the internal struggle to invade and recapture territory lost in the Seven Years War.


His concerns were entirely reasonable, and shows how risky the Revolution was.

Guide to Houston Gun Shops (Inside the Beltway)

My work-in-progress opinion of Houston gun shops.




Collectors Firearms - This is the premiere gun shop in Houston, and one of the top in the country. For vintage guns, it is likely the top shop. The selection at this place is amazing.  It has all types of firearms, from revolutionary war muskets to modern black rifles. See for yourself as the website is phonemnal and frequently updated. The prices are generally higher than most, but it helps availability. When I was looking for an Ithaca model 37, they were the only shop in town that had one.  I could bid on one online, and they were less, but when you factor in shipping and FFA charges, it would be about $30 cheaper. Is $30 worthwhile to be able to personally inspect the gun, rather than relying on pictures?  On the week June 5 - 10, 2017, they had a store wide 15% off sale, which was great. For common modern arms they are reasonably competitive with other shops. The staff is nice but their knowledge varies. 









Lone Star Defense & Arms - This place is the best shop for new owners and the best place for FFL transfers. The owners of this shop are very friendly and nice. They don't keep stock of new guns, but you can order online and have it arrive within 2-3 days. The online prices are extremely competitive, if you are not in a rush and good benchmark for prices. They do have a nice selection of used guns sold on Consignment. This list used to be frequently updated, but it has been slower as of recent. Prices are competitive, so you have to check frequently as some won't sit for long. The price will be 10%-20% less than you might find at Collectors. FFL transfers are only $15, and free for guns bought in their online store. I've also used them to ship guns out for repair, for which they only charged me one FFL fee. Since they are a gun shop, they have better and more convenient access to shipping, so it was much cheaper to use them than to go to FedEx on my own.









Full Armor Firearms - Okay, these guys are just outside the beltway, but too big to ignore. They have both a shop and range.









Carter's Country (Katy Freeway) - They have a good selection of both new and used guns. They also have the best selection of safes, holsters, optics, reloading supplies, hunting gear, shooting accessories, and ammo. They have a small selection of black guns but their specialty is more of pistols, hunting rifles and shotguns.  For used guns, they have a weekly listing but supply may change inter-week without being updated.






Republic Arms - Nice guys, but they usually have less than 5 guns in their store.  You can order through their online shop (which looks like every other online shop). I think their specialty is appraisals and estate sales.







Sunbelt Jewelry & Pawn (2 locations) - Going to a pawn shop for a gun may seem sketchy, but they have a decent stock of used guns. Their sticker prices aren't that attractively priced, but you can bargain. Unlike a Cash America or some national pawnshop chain, the manager will have a better ability to negotiate.






Black Gold Guns & Ammo - Small shop located near Karbach brewery, and not far from Academy.






Top Gun - Primary an indoor firing range, they have a solid selection new pistols as well as some used ones. You can rent a wide variety of guns to try out, in case you are unsure about how a caliber or model feels.





Cash America Pawn (1816 N Durham Dr) - I'm not sure about other Cash America pawn shops, but this one has a few guns. I might have left it completely off the list, but they had a French MAS-49 on of the few times that I have gone it.








Freer Gun Shop - This is more of a gun repair facility than a shop. They will have a few vintage long guns for sale. Great repair shop, though, especially for vintage guns.













The Liberty Armory -  This place seems to be a great shop for people interested in black guns, e.g., AR-15s, semi automatic pistols, etc. Their website doesn't show what is in stock. They do have a range and training classes which teach more than just the CHL. These look intriguing, but I've never attended.




Academy Sports & Outdoor - No used guns, but they have a wide variety of new guns, plus they have a wide array of ammo, shooting supplies, and hunting gear.

Against abortion, but Pro-Choice???

We've all heard the "I'm personally against abortion, but am pro-choice" argument before, well summarized in this oped. She acknowledges that the baby is a unique life, which makes her argument easy to deconstruct.

Scary Mommy: I personally believe that life begins at conception. I believe that an embryo and a fetus are unique human beings. I believe that choosing to terminate a life because of inconvenient timing is wrong. Those beliefs are all rooted in my religious faith, and are why the idea of abortion generally doesn’t sit well with me.
But I can’t laud the separation of church and state and also want my religious beliefs to be the basis for public policy. That’s hypocrisy.....Outright bans on abortion have not been proven to reduce abortion rates....And if you really want to lower abortion rates, put your weight behind legislation that is most likely to reduce unwanted pregnancy. Start advocating for affordable, accessible birth control, comprehensive sex education, and good health care for everyone. If the goal is to reduce abortion rates — which I assume is the goal of anyone who calls themselves pro-life — that’s the only proven way to do so.

To that I say, “I personally am against children working in coal mines, but don’t think my religious beliefs should be the basis for public policy.”

Sounds pretty silly, right? We all base our views of policy on our own moral beliefs, especially when one party has no voice. Unlike a topic like gay marriage, where it is fair to say “well, I’m against gay marriage personally, but my religious beliefs shouldn’t dictate public policy” – because in that case there are two consenting adults and their marriage does not affect anyone else. The author acknowledges that the embryo is a unique human being, but that unique human being does not have a voice in the abortion decision. That is why it is fair that society steps in. No one, except the suicidal, says “I wish I was aborted.” If anyone would say that, society would get them suicide prevention counseling. So if someone believe that the embryo is a unique human being, you also have to believe that in abortion the unique human being is consenting to suicide.

Laws against abortion would not eliminate murder, just as laws against murder don’t prevent murder. Adoption is the variable that is completely missing from this article. There are many good couples that cannot have children of their own, who are ready and willing to adopt. However, unlike the 1960s, adoption today is extremely expensive and difficult, since many unwanted babies are aborted. Many attempt to go through the process, and reluctantly give up after spending tens of thousands of dollars on failed attempts. If adoption was as easy as it was in the 1960s, you would also see couples with natural children adopt additional children.

How tyrants take control of democracies

Robert Reich via Newsweek (along with some of my comments in Italics)

As tyrants take control of democracies, they typically

1. Exaggerate their mandate to govern—claiming, for example, that they won an election by a  landslide even after losing the popular vote.
2. Repeatedly claim  massive voter fraud in the absence of any evidence, in order to restrict voting in subsequent elections. (or cry interference from a foreign nation)
3. Call anyone who opposes them “enemies.” (or deplorables, but see further commentary below)
4. Turn the public against journalists or media outlets that criticize them, calling them "deceitful” and “scum.” (Or co-opt the media to being your sycophants. If they don't go along, shut out media personalities or outlets that provide any sort of critical view. Just see how Sheryl Attkisson was forced out. )
5. Hold  few if any press conferences, preferring to communicate with the public directly through mass rallies and  unfiltered statements. (Like Hillary not having a press conference for over 300 days. Avoid any hard interviews too. Just go on urban radio stations or the View. I’m not sure who did that. )
6. Tell the public  big lies, causing them to doubt the truth and to believe fictions that support the tyrants’ goals. (Similar to “I will put bills online for 3 days before signing them” or “if you like your doctor you can keep it”.)
7. Blame economic stresses on  immigrants or racial or religious minorities, and foment public bias and even  violence against them.
8. Attribute acts of domestic violence to “enemies within,” and use such events as excuses to beef up internal security and  limit civil liberties.
9. Threaten  mass deportations,  registries of religious minorities and the banning of refugees. (Name a tyrant that had mass deportations? It is conform or be imprisoned. Plenty of non-tyrants have greatly restricted immigration of any type.)
10. Seek to eliminate or reduce the influence of competing centers of power, such as labor  unions and opposition parties.
11. Appoint  family members to high positions of authority. (It's cronies, not just family members. Unqualified people, who’s top quality is loyalty. However, Hitler kept top people in their business roles. In a July 6, 1933 speech to the Nazi State governors, he notes "We must therefore not dismiss a businessman if he is  good businessman, even if he is not yet a National Socialist, and especially not if the National Socialist who is to take his place knows nothing about business. In business, ability will be the only standard)
12. Surround themselves with their  own personal security forces rather than security details accountable to the public.
13. Put  generals into top civilian posts. (It’s not generals, it’s cronies. Plenty of former generals have served with distinction in civilian roles, including George Marshall and Colin Powell. )
14. Make  personal alliances with foreign dictators.(Kim Jong Il has no foreign personal alliances)
15. Draw no distinction between personal property and public property,  profiteering from their public office. (like how the Clintons went from being “dead broke” in 2001 to being worth $110 Million today on the salaries of two government employees.)

Consider yourself warned.

Reich tries to create a list which fits Trump, but some of his statements are really secondary items. When tyrants take control of democracies, they ACTUALLY do the following:

1. Increase executive power, by using executive actions to circumvent the legislature. Exaggerating a mandate can be just bravado ; it’s trying to expand dictatorial (executive) power that is the problem. This also can include ramrodding legislation through the legislature through means outside the traditional process , and not letting the people find out what is in bills before being passed. “We have to pass the bill to find out what’s in it.” – Nancy Pelosi
2. Appoint “czars” to lead certain key functions, to circumvent a traditional confirmation process of the legislature.
3. Use the IRS or other government agencies to intimidate the opposition. I’m not sure any form of “punishing the opposition” escape Herr Reich’s list. Calling them “enemies” is not the same as actual persecution and/or retribution. If there is a criticism, retire a low level bureaucrat with full pension. Definitely do NOT appoint a special prosecutor for such a case. Use your Attorney General to cover everything up.
4. Disrupt the function of the opposition parties and rallies, such as paying people like Robert Creamer to plant people to start fights at your opposition’s political rallies. (Robert Creamer visited the White House 342 times, including 47 meetings with the President).
5. Use foment civil unrest by dividing people against each other. Rahm Emanuel said “Never let a serious crisis go to waste.” Sometimes tyrants have to invent that crisis.
6. Sack career non-partisan civil servants and replace them with crony bureaucrats (Travelgate, among others)

Quick Guide to D-Frame Colt Revolvers

This is an incomplete (work-in-progress) list of Colt's postwar D frame revolvers. Colt's D frame revolvers are larger than the Smith & Wesson J-Frame, but smaller than their K Frame. The benefits of this is that it fits a little more security in your hand, and has six rounds. Colt revolvers carry a substaintial premium to their S&W counterparts.

 

• Police Positive Special ($400 -$1,000) - all steel blued version, D frame .38, usually with a 4" barrel. Many pre-war models are on the less expensive end.
• Detective Special ($900 - $1,000) - similar to the Police Postive Special, but  with a  2" barrel
• Colt Diamondback ($2,000 - $2,500) - Same frame as the Police Positive Special, but nice finish. Barrell lengths of 2.5", 4" or 6"
• Colt Cobra -($1,100) Has an aluminum frame, available in 2", 3", or 4" barrel
• Colt Agent - ($900 - $1,000)  a budget version of the Cobra Cobra, featuring a less highly polished blue finish and smaller, simplified grips

Guide to Smith & Wesson Model Numbers

 

 

Smith & Wesson models can be extremely confusing. This is amplified that prior to 1957, the revolvers had names, not numbers. You can break it down by frame and version. Many models are the same weapon with variations in material, sight adjustibility, or caliber . This is an incomplete list, focusing on the more popular variants that are seen.

 

J-Frame (small)

 

Chief's Special

• Model 36: (.38 Special)  aka the Chief Special. Blued subnose
• Model 37: Airweight Chief's Special. An aluminum frame/barrel version of the Model 36. Aluminum barrels were replaced with steel for safety.
• Model 637: A model 37 with a stainless steel body.

  

Model 60: All stainless steel snubnose. Introduced as a .38 special, models starting with the 60-9 in 1996 had .357 magnum versions. Starting with the 60-14, there is the internal lock.

 

Bodyguard

• Model 49: (.38 Special) aka the Bodyguard, is a shrouded hammer snubnose
• Model 38: an aluminum frame, carbon steel cylinder version of the 49
• Model 638: an aluminum frame, stainless steel cylinder version of the 49
• Model 649: all stainless steel version, chambered in either .38 or .357

 

Centennial

• Model 40: (.38 special) concealed hammer snubnose
• Model 42: aluminum frame verson of Model 40
• Model 640: (.357 magnum) Modern aluminum frame, Stainless steel model
• Model 642: .38 Special version of the Model 640
• Model 442: Aluminum frame, carbon steel barrel version of the 640

 

 

K-Frame (medium frame)

 

Military & Police

• Model 10: (.38 special), formerly known as the Military & Police model. Usually 4" barrel. The internal lock started at model 10-14.
• Model 13: (.357 magnum) magnum version of the Model 10
• Model 14: (.38 special) aka K38 target Masterpiece. Has adjustable sights and longer barrels.
• Model 15: (.38 special) Has adjustable sights, but shorter barrels than model 14
• Model 19: (.357 magnum) aka Combat Magnum.   Has adjustable sights
• Model 64: A stainless steel version of the Model 10.
• Model 65: A stainless steel version of the Model 13
• Model 66: A stainless steel version of the Model 19
• Model 67: A stainless steel version of the Model 15

 

L- Frame (medium large) - These utilize the same grip as the K-frame, but the barrel is beefied up and it can hold 7 rounds

 

• Model 581 ·
• Model 586: Blue steel version of the 686 
• Model 619
• Model 620 ·
• Model 646 ·
• Model 681 ·
• Model 686: (.357 magnum) - Can hold 7 rounds

 

N-Frame (large frame)

 

• Model 22 ·
• Model 27: Originally known as the Registered Magnum, this is the original .357
• Model 28: Originally known as the Highway Patrolman, this is a budget version of the Model 27 (has less HQ finish) 
• Model 29 · The Dirty Harry Gun. A .44 Magnum
• Model 57 ·
• Model 610 ·
• Model 625 ·
• Model 629

 

 

Ohio State Knife / Car Attack by Islamic Terrorist

This story is going to get dropped like a hot potato now that the media has found out the guy is Muslim, and he used a knife and a car.

We will be instead deluged with stories about how Muslims Fear Backlash.... because they are always the victim.




In the August 25th issue of the student newspaper Lantern, the same killer was playing the victim card. :
"On Monday afternoon, the Ohio State Department of Public Safety released the name of the suspect involved in the violent incident near Watts Hall — Abdul Razak Ali Artan, a third-year in logistics management. The Lantern had interviewed Artan as part of Humans of Ohio State, a print-only feature in The Lantern’s Arts&Life section. Below, The Lantern has reproduced the same interview that appeared in the Aug. 25 issue of the paper. The text below is a direct quote from Artan.
“I just transferred from Columbus State. We had prayer rooms, like actual rooms where we could go pray because we Muslims have to pray five times a day.
“There’s Fajr, which is early in the morning, at dawn. Then Zuhr during the daytime, then Asr in the evening, like right about now. And then Maghrib, which is like right at sunset and then Isha at night. I wanted to pray Asr. I mean, I’m new here. This is my first day. This place is huge, and I don’t even know where to pray.
“I wanted to pray in the open, but I was scared with everything going on in the media. I’m a Muslim, it’s not what the media portrays me to be. If people look at me, a Muslim praying, I don’t know what they’re going to think, what’s going to happen. But, I don’t blame them. It’s the media that put that picture in their heads so they’re just going to have it and it, it’s going to make them feel uncomfortable. I was kind of scared right now. But I just did it. I relied on God. I went over to the corner and just prayed.”




So if people looked at him, and thought "he'd drive his car into a crowd of people and then start knifing them, they would have been spot on.

Thoughts on the Election

• Wow, Trump won. After all the final votes get tallied, it’ll be interesting to do some analysis about how Trump in states compared to both expectations and against previous elections. Trump won in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: pipe dreams in the previous elections, but the margin of victory in previous Republican strongholds was diminished. Ohio went for Trump by 8.6%, but Arizona was only 4.3% (it went for Romney by 9.1%)
• Trump wasn’t my #1 choice for President, but he was still better than Hillary. My primary reason for wanting Trump was for the future of the Supreme Court. Trump has floated potential names for justices and by all account, they are reasonably originalists. Hillary clearly stated she would appoint justices that would ignore the Constitution and decide important issues that should be left to the people via the 10^th amendment. Our country suffers when a democratic debate turns into a mandate from the Supreme Court, no matter how unpopular. Who knows what 7 liberal justices would do to gun rights, perhaps buying into the conventional liberal arguments that the 2^nd amendment is about muskets or only if you are in the National Guard. There is nothing to prevent them from overturning Heller. Concepts like stare decisis (precedence) are often touted by the media if a liberal ruling is in jeopardy, but they wouldn’t bat an eye to overturn Heller and impose strict gun laws.
• Liberals I know on Facebook were gloating so much before the election. If they won, they’d be taking victory laps. Now they are in meltdown mode, cursing all Trump voters. Liberals demonize their opponent and then wrap themselves in a cloak of moral superiority. My reaction is a mix of schaedefruede and annoyance.  Republicans didn’t become unhinged when Obama won.  We were forced to sit silently while everyone did victory laps around “the first black President.”
• A Clinton victory would have been a victory for the media. Almost all of the news and coverage was heavily slated to Clinton. Sure, they were able to push in the inexperienced Obama, but at least they couldn’t push someone under constant FBI investigation.
• When Democrats win, the talk is how Republicans need to change their policies to be more electable. When Republicans win, the media talk is that Republicans are angry, or at worst, a stylistic complaint about their candidate, e.g. People didn't like candidate's clothes. The fault never lies with their policies.
• Trump won’t be as great as his ardent supporters claim, nor will he bring about the calamity that his detractors fear. He is more of an old-school Democrat like Al Smith or Harry Truman. Even if he does just a decent job, he will cruise to re-election (if he chooses)  because the fear-mongering about him “being racist, sexist, xenophobic bigot, who will go house to house to deport anyone who isn’t white” will prove to be grossly false. Then the liberals will be left with nothing.
• The market is up tremendously despite all of the negative stories about how the market would react if Donald won.

Election Eve: RealClearPolitics Historical Accuracy

RCP gives Clinton a 3.2% advantage in the popular vote and a 301-237 edge in the electoral college. 3.2% nationally is a healthy margin, but RCP was only off by that much in 2012, to Obama's favor. If you drill down on a state-by-state level, it is much less clear. Two states, FL and NH,  which would deliver Trump a victory are within 0.2% and 0.6% chance. State polls are routinely off by 2% or more.

The below table is a comparison of final state polls in 2008 & 2012 versus their actual. I only examined polls where the lead was less than 5%, as those states would have more frequent polling. Polling is a lagging indicator.  National polls are more frequent, so state polls can be supplemented with national trends. Both times, national polls showed late momentum for Obama and the results broke for Obama. Last nationals polls have broke slightly for Clinton.

The results are uncertain but I think Trump is in a better spot than Romney was. For Romney to have won in 2012, he would have had to pickup five states, three of which Obama was leading by 2% or more. Trump has to win two states where Clinton is ahead by 0.6% or less.  The outlook is certainly worthy of 31.5% chance of winning that FiveThirtyEight gives Trump.

One misconception is that margin of error is absolute - i.e., if a poll has a 4% margin of error, and the poll shows candidate A down by 3.7%, many pundits will say that is a complete tossup. The 4% likely represents three standard deviations, so a 3.7% deficit really means about a 5% chance of winning, not a 50/50.  Being down by 0.2%, however, is very close to 50/50.

2016 Data

 

For comparison, Electoral-vote.com gives NC and ME#2 to Clinton for a 317-221 edge.

 

2012

Realclearpolitics was the least accurate for the popular vote, being off by 3.2%. For the electoral college, they only called Florida wrong, which they had a 1.5% margin for Romney, but it went for Obama by 0.8%. Virgina was correctly called, though they called a 0.3% margin for Obama when the actual margin was 3.8%.  Electoral-vote.com had the same for Obama (303), but put NC as a tossup.

 

 

 

 

2008

The 2008 race was quite accurate: They were off 0.3% on the popular vote in Obama's favor, and put two states, Indiana and North Carolina, in the McCain column, when they ultimately went to Obama. McCain lead Indiana by 1.4% and went for Obama by 1.1%. McCain lead North Carolina by 0.4% and it went to Obama by 0.3%.

 

 

 

2004

The 2004 race, the popular vote err'd in Kerry's favor by 0.9%. Realclearpolitics didn't have a electoral state map which I was aware of, but I was following electoral-vote.com at the time which gave the edge to Kerry. The err'd on Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and completely missed the mark on New Jersey.

Ithaca Model 37 - 18.5" vs. 28" Barrels

I test fired my Ithaca Model 37 shotgun using Remington reduced recoil 00 buckshot ammo with both my 18.5" barrel and my 28" barrel.

 

I wanted to see what the spread was for the different barrels. When do you start seeing a noticeable spread. I also want to see what the difference in recoil between "reduced recoil" and standard shells were.

 

A little background: I've never owned a shotgun prior to this, and has shot one less than 10 times in my life. This was my first outing with it, and my first usage of a shotgun in 2-3 years. I have substantially more experience with pistols and rifles.

 

The targets largely speak for themselves. My takeaways:

1. Noticeable spread won't happen until starting at 10 yards.
2. If you have home defense shotgun, the myth of pointing anywhere is bunk. There inner cicle was about 5 inches in diameter. Since nowhere in your house will there be anything longer of a shot than 7 yds, there is a small amount of forgiveness for inaccuracy, but that's about it.
3. The forgiveness from a shotgun comes from the fact that if you are off the mark, the force would be so huge, that you have time to follow-up. Take the 18.5" barrel, lower left shot. I was aiming for the center of the circle, but the result would be have hit an intruder's shoulder. It wouldn't likely be a fatal wound, but the stopping power allows you to have a follow-up action.
4. I can say I have poor aim, as I generally shot high. Having only a front sight takes a little getting used to. Practicing is key.
5. I don't like the results of the 15 yard try, and would like to go back with a fresh shoulder and some clean targets. I am a bit surprised the change in spread from 10 to 15 yds, but I think a reshoot is required to make any real conclusions.
6. Reduced recoil is marginal - 1200 fps vs 1275 fps, which is 5% less energy. I shot both, and you could tell that the difference was only marginal). While I likely need a new recoil pad (who knows how old this one is), my shoulder is sore after 9 shots of reduced recoil, and 1 of  standard. I'm also 6'2" and 200 lbs. I

 

 

 

Additional Barrels for Older Ithaca Model 37 Shotguns

The beauty of the Ithaca Model 37 (and some other models of shotguns) is the ability to attach different barrels for it. Leave the short barrel on for home defense and then put on a longer barrel for skeet or birds. However, barrels for older Ithacas (pre 855,000)  are not interchangeable. One option is the new Ithaca Gun's option:

Ithaca Gun Company: Model 37^® firearms with a serial number below 855,000 have barrels that are fixed and non-interchangeable. If your M37 was made before the 855,000 mark (which occurred in 1963), we will be able to furnish you with a replacement barrel for it, but you must send your gun to us for the barrel to be fitted. The process includes machine removal of existing threads, insertion of adapter and re-threading of receiver and re-bluing. Please note that once this is completed you will not be able to reuse your old barrel. Cost for this process is $180.00 for the adapter, plus cost of barrel. Includes re-bluing at no charge. Model 37s^® with a serial number above 855,000 have interchangeable barrels (except for some Deerslayers), but often still require some custom fitting by our gunsmiths.

For me, and perhaps others, I don't like the idea of ruining the original barrel.  This is another solution: First you call Ron Sharp at Sharp's Guns in Canada. You can buy a new-old-stock barrel from him, as he has many. (He purchased inventory during one of the Ithaca bankruptcies).  Ron is very nice and very old school, so he only uses the phone and accepts payment via bank money order. If he doesn't have the desired barrel length in stock,  he will cut the barrel to any length specified. I chose 18.5" as it matches the new self-defense guns from Ithaca (which have fixed barrels, btw.)

 

Ron then will ship the barrel to Les Hovencamp of Diamond Gunsmithing, who will fit the old barrel to your gun. You, of course, ship your gun, without original barrel, to Les. Les was a long time gunsmith for Ithaca. He is the go-to guy that everyone trusts.


The whole process takes about a month or so, depending on how busy everyone is. However, for the cost of ~$250, you can have an additional barrel. This is a very economical way to add flexibility to your existing shotgun. It also saves space for those of us have moderately size safes.


In comparison, the "new Ithaca option" would be $180 for the adapter, $275 to replace your existing barrel and then $250 for the new home defense barrel.

 

 

Time (all are approximate and will vary with workload):

• Receipt of Payment: 6 business days
• Barrel adjustment: 5 business days
• Barrel transit time (to Diamond Gunsmithing): 10 business days
• Fitting period: 5 business days
• Shipment home: 6 business days

 

Costs (may vary due to inflation or demand):

• Cost of Barrel $100
• Shipment of Barrel to Les: $25
• Cost of Fitting: $75
• Cost of Shipment home: ~$45

 

Addresses & Phone Numbers:

Ron Sharp

RR4

Dunnville Ontario

N1A 2W3

Canada

(905) 774-6368

 

Les Hovencamp

Diamond Gunsmithing

211 Dey St.

Ithaca, NY 14850

607-273-4510

 

The Department of Obstructing Justice.

Well written article on why the Clinton emails matter:


http://observer.com/2016/10/james-comey-and-loretta-lynch-should-be-impeached-for-whitewashing-clintons-crimes/




The Clearest (No Spin) Summary of FBI Report on Hillary Clinton Email


https://sharylattkisson.com/the-clearest-no-spin-summary-of-fbi-report-on-hillary-clinton-email/

Ethics: Trump vs. Clinton (re John Oliver)

Regarding John Oliver's take on Trump vs. Clinton


While I agree that both Trump and Clinton have their lies, it is hard to see how Trump spending $10k a picture of himself from his Foundation funds is worse that selling a massive amount of uranium reserves to Russia after getting $Millions in donations to their Foundation through several sham outfits. (Just because other gov't agencies approved it, doesn't mean it was ethical. Who wants to cross the Clintons?)


Oliver lays out every charge against Trump, but ignores some of Clinton's old ones, including making 1000% trading cattle futures within a year. He makes up a scandal instead, and talks about the most ridiculous of the internet accusations in order to distract from legitimate claims.


I agree with Oliver on Trump's taxes, but if Trump was doing something illegal, the IRS would prosecute him. Was that not the standard that Oliver set for Hillary? So he's not releasing his taxes because he either a) doesn't make as much as he purported ... or b) he doesn't give that much to charity. It's a lie, but not to the level of setting up your own server so you can hide emails about getting payment to the Clinton Foundation.

She lied about so much, well documented in this mashup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
Certainly if Trump lied about landing in Bosnia under sniper fire, it would have been given a royal treatment by Oliver, but in this case, it is ignored. Let's not forget that Brian Williams got fired from his anchor position, because of a similar lie, but Clinton can be President. https://www.youtube.com/watch?...


Oliver gets indignant over Trump's blind trust remark, but it was no different than when Hillary said Chelsea would run her Foundation if she gets elected. The Clinton Foundation took in $140 M in donations in 2013 (last available year), making it a huge conflict of interest.
While Oliver details Trump's Foundation's misgivings, he leaves off many key facts on the Clinton Foundation. The Clinton foundation spent only 6% of it's income in 2013 on Charity work. Charity Navigator put the foundation on its “watch list,” which warns potential donors about investing in problematic charities. Almost all of Hillary's personal charitable donations were to her Foundation. She's donating to herself!

When Police Officer Get Killed

Police officers, in their training review, instances like these. That's why people need to listen, then complain after the fact. Police are 100% correct, but they do want to return to their families.




Here are a couple examples for the memory bank.






In January 2015, Officer Tyler Stewart was shot and killed by a suspect refusing to take his hands out of his pocket, when he was responding to a call for domestic abuse






Back 1998, Officer Kyle Dinkheller was killed at a traffic stop who returned to his car and retrieved a gun.


In 1991, Officer Darren Lunsford was killed at a traffic stop when marijuana smugglers all got out of a vehicle, tackled and killed him.

Recent Terror Attacks

In the last year, terror attacks in Western countries are becoming a frequent occurrence, so much so that if it doesn't kill 20+ people, the mainstream press may not cover it.






Nov 13, 2015, Paris, France: Gunmen and bombers kill 130


Mar 22, 2016, Brussels, Belgium: Bombers kill 32
Jul 14, 2016: Nice, France: Truck attack kills 84
July 18, 2016, Wurzburg, Germany: Axeman injures five
July 22, 2016, Munich Germany: Shooting rampage kills 9
Jul 24, 2016, Ansbach, Germany: Bomber kills self, injures 15
Jul 24, 2016, Reutlingen, Germany: Machete wielding man kills woman
Jul 26, 2016, Roeun, France: Priest executed during Mass
Jul 26, 2016, Berlin, Germany: Doctor Shot dead
Aug 6, 2016: Chareloi, Belgium: Algerian man wielding machete shouted 'Allahu Akbar' as he attacked two female police officers
Aug 13, 2016: 27 year old "Swiss national" doused 6 in petrol and set them ablaze. One died, 5 are very injured.
Aug 20, 2016: Istanbul, Turkey: 12 year old ISIS bomber kills 51 at wedding.
Aug 23, 2016, Roanoke, VA: 20 year old, US citizen, Wasil Rafat Farooqui tried to behead a man, and stabbed a woman while shouting "Allahu Akbar"
Aug 24, 2016, Australia: 21 year old woman was stabbed by French national yelling "Allahu Akbar", while another man was badly injured.