Decision 2004 Prediction

With the election only 4 days away, it's about time to make my election night predicitons. Everyone in the media is on about how close of an election it will be, but I have the feeling that Bush will win by a larger margin than anticipated. I think this year, many more people will be less inclined to vote 3rd party due to the polarization of opinions.

My Prediciton:

EV votes:
Bush: 331
Kerry: 207

Popular Vote:
Bush 51%
Kerry: 47.5%
Nader: 1%
3rd Party: 0.5%

My reasoning begins with the fact that Kerry is a rather lousy candidate. Even Michael Moore thinks so. People are going to be voting against Bush more than they are for Kerry. However, that will only get someone so much of the vote. Electoral Vote shows that Bush is polling at least 5% margin in states totalling 218 EV, while Kerry is only polling with a 5% lead in states with 171 EV. That leaves 139 up for grabs, within the realm of statistical margins of error. Even a split of the remaining EV votes gives Bush a 287-230 win, but I think at the end of the day, swing voters will see a strong leader in Bush and apathetic Democrats will stay home.

If my predicition is true, it'll stop some of the whining we've been hearing from partisan Democrats over the last 4 years about the selected president. I also hope it a wider margin so we don't have all the lawyers and legal challenges this year like we did in 2000. I hope that wasn't the start of a precident where every election is challenged in court. I also think that after the election, that the press and pundits will be wondering why the election seemed so close.

So much for Global Warming?

With reports that Britain will face a cold winter, what has happened to the “theory” of global warming? Undoubtedly global warming philes will have the answer. If the day is unusually hot, it’s because of global warming. If it is cold, then global warming is causing the Gulf Stream to be moved, hence it “actually being colder.” So no matter whether it is hot or it’s cold, global warming can be blamed. This is also all due to the fact that Bush pulled out of the Kyoto treaty as well.

Britain is about to be hit by one of the coldest winters in recent memory, according to the same weather experts who predicted 2004's Summer would be a washout. And the first chill of the coming freeze will arrive on Monday, the forecasters say.The people at Metcheck.com believe the country will be subjected to a series of cold fronts sweeping Britain until Christmas. And the New Year will bring even more icy
spells. Senior forecaster Andrew Bond said: "From what we are predicting,
Britain could see its coldest winter of the century so far. Sky News

Britian's National Healthcare Mess

Besides long waits and no choice, another problem with Britian's universal government controlled healthcare has been revealed. The government can cut off care if they so wish. Now the parents of baby Charlotte are at the mercy of a judge and have no choice to help continue the life of their child.

Sir Mark Hedley ruled that sick Charlotte should be allowed to die in the care of those who love her the most. He gave doctors consent not to resuscitate the seriously-ill tot if she stops breathing, despite Darren and wife Debbie’s legal battle to prolong her life....Mr Justice Hedley agreed with experts that “further aggressive treatment” was not in the best interests of the tot, who has spent her life in intensive care...The couple had been praying for a miracle cure for their daughter, the court heard. Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust had sought a court ruling after the Wyatts refused consent to let Charlotte die. The Sun

Vice Prez Debates

Although I wasn’t able to see the debate (only read the transcript online), Cheney beat Edwards like a rented mule. In the first debate, I thought it was more even. Cheney knew his facts and had Edwards ducking for cover. Edwards was the one repeating lines.

I thought the moderator did a little better job. Edwards had to duck a couple of questions namely “French and German officials have both said they have no intention even if John Kerry is elected of sending any troops into Iraq for any peacekeeping effort. Does that make your effort or your plan to internationalize this effort seem kind of naïve?” and “What is a global test if it's not a global veto?” Debate Transcript