2020 Dem Nomination Outlook update

This race is Bernie vs Kamala.

• Bernie: he's the thought leader. Every other candidate has been parroting Bernie, or have been too afraid to challenge his proposals
• Kamala: She's reasonably smart, a little awkward, but she's black and a woman. If she wasn't she'd be polling like Kloubachar.
• Pete: Peak Pete is happening now. He's an elitist who is gay. The writers at the NY Times love him, but the voters won't care.
• Biden: He's done before he starts. He's too afraid to be a centrist, so he's going to parrot Bernie. So why get the dime-store Bernie, when you can have the real deal. Look for a bump when he announces and then a steady decline every day after that.
• Yang: He's a one trick pony with his UBL proposal. That garner's tons of enthusiasm with a few people but not enough on a broad basis.
• Warren: Fed gov't paying student loan debt was her hail mary. She's done.
• Beto: The media found Pete. He's like Beto, but is smarter, doesn't wave his arms, and is gay.
• Booker: He was done at Spartacus.

US Population vs Prison Population

So? In Brazil, criminals go unpunished. In Saudi Arabia, criminals are quickly executed or are subjected to corporal punishment so they don’t actually spend time in prison. In Britian, murderers often only get 5 years in prison. In Japan, there is just a lot less criminals. There is much less crime in Vermont than Chicago, but that doesn’t mean that the higher prison population in Chicago is unjust.

Some of our sentencing policies for drugs usage are overly harsh, and I applaud Trump’s efforts for reform, but you can’t look at broad statistics and declare an injustice.

One of the statistics circulating is that the US has 5% of the world’s population, but 25% of the world’s prison population, implying that there is an inherent injustice. 

My answer:   So? In Brazil, criminals go unpunished. In Saudi Arabia, criminals are quickly executed or are subjected to corporal punishment so they don’t actually spend time in prison. In Britian, murderers often only get 5 years in prison. In Japan, there is just a lot less criminals. There is much less crime in Vermont than Chicago, but that doesn’t mean that the higher prison population in Chicago is unjust.

Some of our sentencing policies for drugs usage are overly harsh, and I applaud Trump’s efforts for reform, but you can’t look at broad statistics and declare an injustice.

2020 Democratic Nomination predictions

Here's my handicap of the 2020 Democratic Nomination. I find it interesting because it’s the first Democrat primary since 1992, where there are more than 2 candidate who attract a significant interest (which I would consider higher than 5 cents). Republicans have had wide open fields in every election since 2008.

• Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke is nominally the front runner. On the plus side, while he lost,  he had a strong showing in a loss for a Senate race. His father-in-law is worth some $20 billion giving him a campaign finance boost, not to mention that he was easily able to raise money on his own in the 2016 cycle. Women find him attractive and has managed to create a persona of being hip. However, he still lost, is still only a Congressman, and is a straight white male. How sexist of him to stand in the way of several women candidate?  Aside from Trump, when was the last time someone other than a Governor, Senator, or VP won a nomination? Is Trump the start of a new trend or a one-off blip. The left has so-far ignored the fact that he is a white guy masquerading as a Hispanic. “Beto” is a Spanish nickname for Roberto, which was helpful in his TX race in order to endear himself to Hispanics in his race against an actual Hispanic , the hated Ted Cruz. Now that he’s running against other Dems, will there be cries of cultural appropriation or “race faker” (ala Rachel Dolezan)?
• Kamala Harris: My money is on her, literally. She’s authentically left-wing which is key to getting the nomination. She ranks highest on the intersectionality scale, so she can bludgeon opponents as either being anti-woman or racist. Being a left-wing minority female is key but if it was the only thing, Maxine Waters would be the nomination. Most importantly, she has a good resume and she’s smart. She was the most impressive Dem Senator during the Kavanaugh hearings.
• Joe Biden couldn’t win in 1988 or 2008.  2016 was his chance and he didn’t do it. I don’t even think he runs. He’s a 76,  white, and male. There’s also a lot of video of him being creepy to women, which won’t hold up well under a campaign.
• Bernie Sanders’s high water mark was in 2016. He was an outlet for opposition to Hillary, but there are several candidates which hold similar left-wing views who are younger.
• Cory Booker has come across as too stupid. As mayor of Newark, NJ, he showed some promise as a centrist and someone who can achieve results, but he has since decided that he needed to tack far left to capture the nomination. His “I am Spartacus” moment was cringeworthy and he looked lackluster in the Kavanaugh hearings.
• Elizabeth Warren, once a darling of the left, already seems desperate. Two cringe-worthy  episodes right out of the gate: her I’m 1/1024^th Native American was a desperate attempt to be more than “just a white woman”. Her “Hold on, let me get a beer” was a desperate attempt to be “hip” and reminded me of Doctor Evil trying to do the Macarena.  Bernie’s more socialist, Beto is more hip, and Kamala is higher on the intersectionality scale. That leaves Warren out in the wind.
• Kristen Gillibrand & Amy Klobuchar – who? Ok, I know who they are but they have poor name recognition, and solely being a white woman doesn’t really excite the left these days. Maybe one of them will get desperate and convert to Islam. Otherwise, they are like the Tim Pawlenty of 2012 Republican Primary. Klobuchar will finish 3^rd in Iowa primary and Gillibrand will finish 3^rd in NH primary, and that will be their high-water mark. They’ll drop out, at the latest, immediately following super-Tuesday.
• John Hickenlooper – Not on the list and could have won the nomination with a Democratic party circa 1996. Now he’s too center, too white, and too male.