Here's my handicap of the 2020 Democratic Nomination.
I find it interesting because it’s the first Democrat primary since 1992, where
there are more than 2 candidate who attract a significant interest (which I would
consider higher than 5 cents). Republicans have had wide open fields in every election
since 2008.
- Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke is
nominally the front runner. On the plus side, while he lost, he had a strong showing in a loss for a
Senate race. His father-in-law is worth some $20 billion giving him a
campaign finance boost, not to mention that he was easily able to raise
money on his own in the 2016 cycle. Women find him attractive and has
managed to create a persona of being hip. However, he still lost, is still
only a Congressman, and is a straight white male. How sexist of him to
stand in the way of several women candidate? Aside from Trump, when was the last time someone
other than a Governor, Senator, or VP won a nomination? Is Trump the start
of a new trend or a one-off blip. The left has so-far ignored the fact
that he is a white guy masquerading as a Hispanic. “Beto” is a Spanish nickname
for Roberto, which was helpful in his TX race in order to endear himself
to Hispanics in his race against an actual Hispanic , the hated Ted Cruz.
Now that he’s running against other Dems, will there be cries of cultural
appropriation or “race faker” (ala Rachel Dolezan)?
- Kamala Harris: My money is on her,
literally. She’s authentically left-wing which is key to getting the
nomination. She ranks highest on the intersectionality scale, so she can
bludgeon opponents as either being anti-woman or racist. Being a left-wing
minority female is key but if it was the only thing, Maxine Waters would
be the nomination. Most importantly, she has a good resume and she’s smart.
She was the most impressive Dem Senator during the Kavanaugh hearings.
- Joe Biden couldn’t win in 1988 or
2008. 2016 was his chance and he didn’t
do it. I don’t even think he runs. He’s a 76, white, and male. There’s also a lot of
video of him being creepy to women, which won’t hold up well under a
campaign.
- Bernie Sanders’s high water mark
was in 2016. He was an outlet for opposition to Hillary, but there are
several candidates which hold similar left-wing views who are younger.
- Cory Booker has come across as too
stupid. As mayor of Newark, NJ, he showed some promise as a centrist and someone
who can achieve results, but he has since decided that he needed to tack
far left to capture the nomination. His “I am Spartacus” moment was
cringeworthy and he looked lackluster in the Kavanaugh hearings.
- Elizabeth Warren, once a darling
of the left, already seems desperate. Two cringe-worthy episodes right out of the gate: her I’m
1/1024th Native American was a desperate attempt to be more
than “just a white woman”. Her “Hold on, let me get a beer” was a desperate
attempt to be “hip” and reminded me of Doctor Evil trying to do the Macarena.
Bernie’s more socialist, Beto is
more hip, and Kamala is higher on the intersectionality scale. That leaves
Warren out in the wind.
- Kristen Gillibrand & Amy Klobuchar – who? Ok, I know
who they are but they have poor name recognition, and solely being a white
woman doesn’t really excite the left these days. Maybe one of them will
get desperate and convert to Islam. Otherwise, they are like the Tim
Pawlenty of 2012 Republican Primary. Klobuchar will finish 3rd
in Iowa primary and Gillibrand will finish 3rd in NH primary,
and that will be their high-water mark. They’ll drop out, at the latest,
immediately following super-Tuesday.
- John Hickenlooper – Not on the
list and could have won the nomination with a Democratic party circa 1996.
Now he’s too center, too white, and too male.