Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Carbon Tax / Payroll Tax Swap?

From NR:
I’d be interested in hearing from Planet Gore contributors and readers — particularly the number-crunchers among you — on Gil Metcalf's idea for a revenue-neutral carbon tax: swapping a carbon tax for a reduction in payroll taxes. Metcalf, a Tufts economist and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, wrote a policy brief on the topic...

My response
which got "published":

Swapping a payroll tax for carbon tax is a flawed idea, because not everyone will experience the tax swap as neutral. Each decision to live in America or do business in America is done at an individual level, not at an aggregate level. While the average individual person may pay no more taxes initially with such a swap, an energy-dependent business will likely see increased taxation as a result.

Imagine an industrial business that has previously invested in a significant increase in automation. The new reduction in payroll tax will be heavily outweighed by a higher carbon tax. So that business would likely decline to invest further in America, and seriously consider moving its equipment and operation elsewhere.

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