Election Predictions

With the election tomorrow, McCain seems to be trailing heavily in the polls. For the popular vote, Rasmussen says Obama by 6%, Zogby says 7%. Gallup says 8%, and CBS News has a landslide 13%. The only close one is Investors Business Daily/TIPP, which has Obama by 2%, with nearly 9% undecided. Electorally, yahoo says it's going to be a blowout:



So does electoral-vote.com:


However, I take a different view. I find it hard to believe that Obama is going to win in battleground states that went to Hillary Clinton by a significant margin. I believe some Clinton supporters will either stay home or vote McCain. That combined with the traditional Republican voters, you don't need a huge percentage of Clinton defectors to win. If 10% stay home, then Obama will lose roughly 5% of the overall vote. Clinton won Ohio and Pennsylvania by about 9%.




I also don't think McCain will lose any state that Dole won in 1996. McCain hasn't run the greatest of campaigns, but he's better than Dole and Obama is worse to the electorate than Clinton was in 1996. I also don't think that Obama will win any state that Bush won by 9% or 10%. I refuse to believe that the demographics and voting principles have changed that much. That means Virginia or North Carolina should stay with McCain despite conventional wisdom.

The pessimist in me says that the polls are underweighting McCain somewhat, but not enough to win. So this is the worst that I think that McCain will do:



Conversely, millions of people will press the lever for a Democrat regardless of who it is. Here's the best I think McCain could do:



Interestingly enough, a tie is a real possibility:



Finally, my prediction and/or hope. To recap my philosphy, McCain wins: states that Dole won + battleground states that Hillary won by a margin + states that Bush won by 9%.