Election Predictions

First the semi-professionals:

Electoral-vote.com (run by a Democrat)
Senate: 51 Dem, 48 Rep, 1 Ind
House: 217 Rep, 201 Dem, 17 ties

Electionprojection.com (run by a Republican)
Senate: 49 Dem, 49 Rep, 1 Dem (+8 Rep)
House: 241 Rep, 194 Dem (+62 Rep)

For the Senate, Republicans are projected to pick up: Nevada, Colorado, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas, Pennsylavania,
Dems hold onto: Oregon, Washington, California, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New York (2), Vermont, Connecticut.



Me:
Senate: 51 Republicans
House: 255 Rep, 180 Dem

I think the turnout among Democrats is going to be low. Ancedotally, yesterday I posted "I've been looking forward to tomororow for a long time". All my friends that are Republicans knew what I was talking about. Friends that are liberals, asked, "What's tomorrow?"

In addition to the predictions by electionprojection, I think Republicans pick up two of three of the following: West Virginia, Washington, California.

Since polls only track about a third of the races that pundits have deemed competitive, I think there are several races which are not being considered in the equations. No pundit would have predicted the Scott Brown Senate win in Massachusetts, five months before he got elected. I think an additional 10-15 seats may break Republican.

It all may be wishful thinking, but I don't see a reason for Democrats to go to the polls.