Romney: Although the below chart shows him a few delegate shorts, he has a high probability of reaching 1,144 on his own
Santorum: Would have to stop Romney and then get Gingrich and Paul delegates on board.
Paul: If Romney is short, Paul's delegates could play kingmaker between Romney or Santorum, leading to an interesting deal.
1 Delegates are awarded by district and statewide
2 Some delegates awarded by district and statewide, some proportionately, some winner-take-all
3 Election becomes winner-take-all if a candidate meets a certain threshold (usually 50%)
3 comments:
Texas is proportional.
All of the states after April 1 are not winner take all. In fact, most of the states that are winner take all are Romney states (texas, penn, NC, WV, IN, KY AR Nebraska... arent winner take all), . This means that Romney will win delegates in most of the stated you gave to Santorum = Romney > 1144.
math.
After reviewing the allocations of all the states, I've revised the analyses, but the conclusion is largely the same.
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