2012 Election - Final Predictions

President:

Popular Vote: Romney 50.7%, Obama 48.5%, other 0.8%
Electoral College:

Senate

Current Senate: 51 Democrats +2 Independents (who caucus with Dems), 47 Republicans. Among the Senate seats up for election in 2012, there are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents.

Despite the polls being close in some races, the fact there is a presidential eleciton will bring many more people to the polls. There will only be so many cross-over votes (i.e., vote Romney, but vote McCaskill for Senate). So if Romney or Obama is leading by more than 6%, I think the R or D will win.


Prediction: (hotly contested seats are underlined)

Dems gain (2): Maine (officially an independent but will likely caucus with Dems), Massachusetts,
Republicans gain (6): Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin,
Republicans hold (8): Arizona, Indiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming,
Dems hold (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia


Result: 51 Republicans, 46 Dems + 1 Independent

House:
Current House: Republicans 242, Dems 193
Prediction: little movement, ranging from Republicans +6 to Dems +2