The State of the Race

The Presidential Election is 90 days away and Trump is struggling against one of the worst possible candidates. During the primary, he was considered "Teflon Don" for his ability to make criticism not stick. Of course, that was before he had the full force of the media pounding against him. Any off-the-cuff remarks now are hammered, repeated nationwide, and blown out of proportion. ... but they are also self inflicted. (.e.g, the 2nd amendment kerfuffle). I knew this was coming. A candidate like Ted Cruz would have been much more disciplined....but here we are.

 

The bad news is that right now Trump is trailing by 7.7% in the national polls according the Real Clear Politics average. FiveThiryEight's simulation gives Hillary a 85.1% chance of winning. The RCP's no-tossup electoral map indicates a 362-176 Hillary landslide. 

 

There are some reasons not to feel so dour.  In the RCP average, there is a distinct difference between the polls which look at Likely Voter and Registered Voters. Clinton is +9 in the nine polls that look at Registered Voter, but Clinton is only +3.6 in the three polls that look at Likely Voters. As polling companies start polling likely voters as the race continues, you'll get a clearer picture. (All the RCP polls are LV in the last measure prior to election day (e.g., 2008)

 

 

Clinton is ahead, but not as much as Democrats wish to believe. The election is still 90 days away. In 2004, from August 10th to September 9th (30 days), the polls in 2008 and 2012 were:

 

August 10, 2008: RCP Average: Obama 46.6%, McCain 42.2%, Obama +4.4%

September 9, 2008: RCP Average: Obama 45.6, McCain 48%, McCain +2.4%

That's a 6.8% swing within a month.

 

August 10, 2004: RCP Average: Kerry 47.5%, Bush 45%. Kerry + 2.5%

September 9, 2004: RCP Average: Bush 50.4, Kerry 42.8: Bush +7.6%

That's a 10.1% swing within a month.

 

 

Trump has been bombarded with attacks over the last two weeks. His opponents are throwing the kitchen sink at him. The media runs ten anti-Trump stories a day. He is still only behind 3-4% nationally when you look at polls of likely voters. Hillary has more potential to lose ground,  and this could be Hillary's high water mark. There are still three debates to be held, which could change the media narrative.  You don't know what could happen in the polls if a big story really gains momentum. There are several stories:

• The murder of the DNC staffer who may be the leaker of DNC emails,
• A leak of Hillary's missing emails
• Pay-for-play at Clinton Foundation, 
• Hillary's health.

My primary worry about the election is the future of the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has garnered too much power. The leftists on the Court find rights that are not there and take away rights that are clearly spelled out. The case, District of Columbia vs. Heller was only a 5-4 vote.  Four justices did not believe there was a Constitutional right to own firearms. The left will crow on about "precedent" if a ruiling the left like is being challenged. However, that concern will go out the window if Heller or Citizens United is challenged.  There is no guarantee that Trump won't appoint another David Souter to the Supreme Court, but it is guaranteed that Hillary would appoint another Sotomayor or Kagan.

 

Trump has flaws, but the left & the media would demonize any Republican nominee. Back in ~2006, the media fawned all over McCain as he frequently critized Bush. Prominent liberals in the media proclaimed that "McCain is a Republican I could vote for." However, once McCain was the nominee, they declared he would be Bush's 3rd term, called him crazy, old rich white guy, etc.  No matter who was nominated, the Republican nominee would be one or more of the following: evil, rich, old, white, racist, crazy, bigot, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic, anti-women, or dumb.

To not be homophobic, xenophobic, etc, you have agree 100% with whatever the left currently demands wihtout compromise. Back in 2004, Howard Dean was lauded by the left for his support of homosexual civil unions with the rights and privileges of marriage, though he opposed calling it marriage. If you took the exact same position today, the left would call you a bigot.