With the election only 4 days away, it's about time to make my election night predicitons. Everyone in the media is on about how close of an election it will be, but I have the feeling that Bush will win by a larger margin than anticipated. I think this year, many more people will be less inclined to vote 3rd party due to the polarization of opinions.
My Prediciton:
EV votes:
Bush: 331
Kerry: 207
Popular Vote:
Bush 51%
Kerry: 47.5%
Nader: 1%
3rd Party: 0.5%
My reasoning begins with the fact that Kerry is a rather lousy candidate. Even Michael Moore thinks so. People are going to be voting against Bush more than they are for Kerry. However, that will only get someone so much of the vote. Electoral Vote shows that Bush is polling at least 5% margin in states totalling 218 EV, while Kerry is only polling with a 5% lead in states with 171 EV. That leaves 139 up for grabs, within the realm of statistical margins of error. Even a split of the remaining EV votes gives Bush a 287-230 win, but I think at the end of the day, swing voters will see a strong leader in Bush and apathetic Democrats will stay home.
If my predicition is true, it'll stop some of the whining we've been hearing from partisan Democrats over the last 4 years about the selected president. I also hope it a wider margin so we don't have all the lawyers and legal challenges this year like we did in 2000. I hope that wasn't the start of a precident where every election is challenged in court. I also think that after the election, that the press and pundits will be wondering why the election seemed so close.
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