The RCP Average shows Clinton up by 7.7% right now. However, in the RCP average: there is a distinct difference between the polls which look at Likely Voter and Registered Voters.
- Clinton is +9 in the polls that look at Registered Voters (9 polls)
- Clinton is only +3 in the polls that look at Likely Voters. (3 polls)
As polling companies start polling likely voters as the race continues, you'll get a clearer picture. (All the RCP polls are LV in the last measure prior to election day, e.g.,2008 : )
Clinton is ahead, but not as much as Democrats wish to believe. The election is still 90 days away. In 2004, from August 10th to September 9th (30 days), the polls went from Kerry +2.5% to Bush 7.6%, a swing of 10.1%.
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