Tuesday, May 31, 2005

EURO down, no surprise to me

I never had much faith that the Euro would do well as a currency. In it's most basic form, investing in a currency is investing in that country and its economic plan. The current higher value of the Euro does not have anything to do with the strength of the Euro but the relative weakness of the dollar due to a few factors including, the War against Islamic Terrorism. With at least 25% of France and Germany working for the government (overhead) and 10% unemployment, the 65% who work to create wealth have a large burden to bear. Add lots of red tape and taxes which prevent new businesses from growing and average people from being motivated to become richer. To top it off, many of the weaker countries will have problems limiting budget deficits, hence, you could see a situation where the Euro is worth more in different parts of Europe.

I think the euro will continue to tumble as America winds up the costlier portions of the war and its economy continues to grow.
The euro tumbled to a fresh seven-month low against the US dollar in European morning trade on Tuesday as trading desks returned to full strength after Monday's holidays in the US and UK...President Jacques Chirac's decision to name Dominique de Villepin as prime minister, following the resignation of Jean-Pierre Raffarin, also appeared to go down badly with the market, sending the euro lower still when the announcement was made.
"Dominique de Villepin, has a social democratic stance on economic policy, which might help to persuade the anti-reform minded French electorate, but would cost France precious time to reform its outdated economic model. In the case of Villepin being appointed the euro would slide further," Hans Redeker, global head of forex strategy at BNP Paribas, had said prior to Mr Chirac's decision.
Further evidence of the economic plight of the eurozone also emerged on Tuesday, with eurozone-wide industrial and consumer sentiment declining in May. French unemployment also remained at a five-year high of 10.2 per cent, while German joblessness remained at 11.8 per cent....After news of Mr Villeprin's appointment, the euro was down 1.3c at $1.2343 against the dollar AP

1 comment:

Zek said...

No, I'm saying the less the government needs to spend, the better it is for the economy.

Perhaps my grammar wasn't the clearest. The cause of the euro tumbling is an improved dollar. The dollar improves because the government is spending less and the economy is independently growing as well.