2014 Election Preview

Update: http://purveyors-of-truth.blogspot.com/2014/03/2014-election-preview.html

November 2012:

While it is a long way off, I was curious as to what the 2014 Senate elections would look like. Would the Republican party be on offense or defense? The good news is that they seem to be defending safe seats, and have the opportunity to win a few.

Possible pickups were determined by those who won election in 2008 by <=53%.  Without a Presidential election at the top of the ticket, reduced turnout may favor the more motivated party.

A few incumbents may be in red or swing states, but previous elections have favored them so heavily that only a wave election or a retirement would put the seat in play. South Dakota is an outlier. Johnson won handily in 2008, but won squeakers in 2002 and 1996.  Franken officially won by only 300 votes in 2008, but now he is an incumbent in a lean blue state.

In total, I see six seats in potential play, with another four to six if it is a wave election.